OCTOBER FED / OPPORTUNITY LAB
Follow the evidence.
Check the price response.
Official economic releases mapped to five exact Fed contracts. See observed reactions, review related outcomes, and test the cost of a complete outcome basket.
Research prototype · Polymarket October 2026 only · measured observations, no proven trading edge.
What happened. Which contracts matter.
Reviewed economic relevance, not automatic probability forecasts. RSS publication can lag the first official release; the comparison keeps that distinction visible.
Does the gap survive your size?
Walk actual YES asks for equal shares in every outcome. The normal reviewed settlement states imply one winning outcome; rules, fills and fee collection must hold for the comparison to apply.
Keep the observation. Keep its limits.
Up to 200 distinct browser-local observations, collected only while this page runs. Polling pauses in the background; there are no offline alerts or server-scheduled detections. Local data is editable and cannot establish an audited track record or actual returns. Exports retain source times, matched identities/fees, reaction samples and cost caveats; full orderbooks and actual fills are not recorded.